BY JAMES HOLMES | JANUARY 7, 2013

Chuck Hagel may be a former grunt, but his most important task as America’s next secretary of defense — should his nomination pass the Senate — could be a trying job for a landlubber: executing the military component of the Obama administration’s pivot to Asia. It’s a mission that will require an appreciation for the finer points of maritime strategy, a deft diplomatic touch, and an expansive worldview.

But first, Hagel must understand what the pivot is, while viewing it against the grand sweep of U.S. diplomatic history. A historically and geostrategically minded secretary will stand a good chance of configuring the U.S. Navy, Marine Corps, and Coast Guard prudently — and of arranging sea-service forces on the map to accomplish America’s goals.

What is a foreign-policy pivot? Metaphors have their uses, but they can distort meaning if deployed cavalierly. A pivot is a central shaft, axle, or pin around which machinery rotates. The engineering metaphor encourages practitioners and commentators to interpret the administration’s initiative in physical, geospatial terms. In these literal terms, Washington, D.C. is presumably the axle around which U.S. foreign policy revolves. Hence many observers’ lament that the United States is turning its back on perennial theaters like the Atlantic community to oversee events in East and South Asia. There’s a degree of truth to this, but applying the pivot metaphor implies an about-face. Seldom are things that pat.

I define a pivot as a foreign-policy enterprise that combines elements of geography, strategy, and diplomacy to mount a sustained presence in some distant and potentially contested overseas theater. In military terms, pivoting means building up preponderant armed might in East and South Asia in concert with friends and allies to accomplish strategic and political goals. Pivoting is a matter of strategic mass, strategic maneuver, and alliance relations. It also means setting priorities. American leaders must be prepared to relegate secondary theaters to secondary status, lest they scatter finite resources hither and yon. Dispersal thins out military power at any spot on the map, perhaps leaving U.S. commanders at a local disadvantage against weaker foes. Armed forces that try to do everything, everywhere, at the same time end up doing little anywhere.

While the term “pivot” may be novel, its substance is anything but. Indeed, U.S. diplomatic history can be interpreted as a series of pivots. Writing in the 1940s, Yale professor Nicholas Spykman — arguably the foremost geopolitical thinker of his day — recalled that the New World had been an object of struggle for the Old World since Christopher Columbus sailed the ocean blue. In those early centuries, influence radiated across the Atlantic and Pacific toward American shores. Eurasian empires fought for supremacy and prosperity in the Americas. They sustained their efforts largely through overseas commerce, their newfound territorial holdings, and great merchant and naval fleets — the sinews of sea power according to U.S. Navy Captain Alfred Thayer Mahan, a fin-de-siècle pundit who knew a thing or two about the subject.

The United States first pivoted from North America to the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, turning its eyes from the continental interior to the maritime near abroad. Let’s call this turnabout Pivot 1.0. This was the age of the Monroe Doctrine (1823), when Washington appointed itself the protector of American republics’ independence of European imperial rule. In principle, the republic forbade Europeans to expand their holdings anywhere in the Western Hemisphere. In practice, U.S. leaders confined their energies to the Caribbean basin. They were thinking geostrategically, and they set priorities. Once dug, a canal across the Isthmus of Panama would shorten sea voyages between Atlantic and Pacific by thousands of miles, sparing mariners the journey around Tierra del Fuego — the odyssey the Pacific-based battleship USS Oregon underwent to get into the fight off Cuba in 1898.

America executed its first seaward pivot on the cheap. Erstwhile foe Great Britain ruled the waves, and it had reasons of its own for wanting to keep rival empires out of the Americas. Owing to this confluence of interests, Britain’s Royal Navy was a silent partner in the Monroe Doctrine. British, not American seafarers enforced the hands-off policy for most of the 19th century. Washington achieved its geopolitical aims while freeriding on the preeminent fleet of the day. Why invest in an expensive U.S. Navy when powerful outsiders would do the navy’s work for it? Except for a brief buildup for Civil War blockade duty, the U.S. Navy remained a backwater until the 1880s. Only then did the United States lay the keels for its first armored, steam-driven battle fleet — amassing the wherewithal to put steel behind its pivot to the sea. No longer would Washington entrust the doctrine to external guardians whose goodwill could prove fleeting.

In Spykman’s words, U.S. leaders fixed their strategic gaze on “America’s Mediterranean” to the south. They set ambitious goals, such as preserving Latin American republics’ independence while keeping stronger imperial powers at bay. And expediency determined the implements they used to attain those goals. Having an external benefactor like the Royal Navy appeared providential during the founding decades, when the United States was subduing a continent and pursuing internal improvements. By the 1880s, however, the Industrial Revolution had delivered such material abundance that Washington could take charge of North America’s environs. The United States started accumulating strategic mass, manifest in a strong navy. Victory over Spain in 1898 furnished strategic mobility in the form of an island base network to support naval operations in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico.

Policy energy, strategic mass, strategic maneuver — these were the struts supporting America’s first foreign-policy pivot. But if Pivot 1.0 swiveled U.S. attention to the Caribbean, it also ushered in Pivot 1.5. Adm. George Dewey’s Asiatic Squadron crushed the Spanish fleet at Manila Bay during the Spanish-American War, handing the United States an offshore outpost in the Far East. Washington scooped up islands such as Hawaii and Guam — islands suitable for naval stations — in the aftermath of war. America had established a bridgehead off the China coast, complete with island stepping-stones to reach it. It just needed a Central American canal to expedite access from the North American east coast to the Pacific Ocean, and thence to the riches of Asia.

America’s Pacific strategy remained in limbo until the Panama Canal opened in late 1914, completing the arc of Pivot 2.0. In an arresting turn of a phrase, Spykman vouchsafed that the transoceanic waterway in effect lifted the United States and turned it 90 degrees southward on its axis — rotating the republic’s strategic gaze wholesale toward the isthmus and the broad Pacific. In reality the canal split U.S. foreign policy. The republic’s leaders surveyed events not just along the traditional eastward vector toward Western Europe, but also along a new westward vector pointing toward Asia.

With the opening of the canal, the strategic-maneuver component of the Pacific pivot thus fell into place alongside strategic mass. As the United States continued its ascent to great power, consequently, the longstanding pattern — in which the Old World was the arbiter of events in the New — reversed itself. Having won grudging European acquiescence in the Monroe Doctrine, the United States cast eyes on the western and eastern rimlands of Eurasia. Statesmen like Theodore Roosevelt had long considered it dangerous to allow a single great power or hostile coalition to wrest away control of Western Europe, East Asia, or both — gaining sufficient military resources and a geographic platform from which to menace the Americas. Hardscrabble logic like TR’s summoned the United States to Eurasia for two world wars and a Cold War.

The logic of Pivot 2.0 persisted through the Cold War, although the nature of East-West strategic competition drew U.S. strategists’ attention further into the Eurasian heartland occupied by the Soviet Union than during the days when Imperial Germany and the Axis were on the march. Samuel P. Huntington, the great political scientist, contended that U.S. maritime strategy entered a “transoceanic” phase following World War II, fixing American attentions on events deep within Eurasia while empowering U.S. forces to act from forward bases scattered around the rimlands. Call Huntington’s transoceanic strategy Pivot 2.5 if you like. But it was another variation on the same theme.

The difference between the Cold War and the world wars, then, was in emphasis more than substance. The Cold War threw the contest between land and sea power into stark relief. Moscow operated mainly within the bounds of Eurasia, projecting power outward from the heartland along railways, roads, and other land lines of communication. Seagoing Western forces ranged around the circumference, transmitting power inward from the sea. But despite the change of adversary, from the rimland alliances of the world wars to a central Eurasian power, Washington’s determination to prevent a hegemon from ruling the eastern and western rimlands endured.

As in Pivots 1.0 and 1.5, the elements of Pivot 2.0 were policy focus, strategic mass, and maneuver. But two additional elements injected themselves this time. Alliance politics granted the U.S. military access to the Eurasian rimlands, helping forces overcome the tyranny of distance. At the same time, Eurasian opponents boasted growing capacity to dispute entry into their backyards. These elements persist to this day. No pivot can succeed without access to the theater.

Viewed against the backdrop of history, the Obama administration’s maneuver qualifies as Pivot 3.0. How does it differ from its predecessors? First, in effect the administration has pivoted from Western Europe to the greater Indian Ocean, shifting America’s gaze from the western to the southern rimland for the first time. That imparts a north-south character to U.S. policy toward Eurasia, modifying its historically east-west, horizontal alignment. The vertical dimension will become even more pronounced should climate change open the Arctic Ocean — and thus the polar rimland of Eurasia — to shipping more often and more reliably in the coming decades.

But it overstates matters to fret, as worried Europe-first commentators often do, that the pivot presages American neglect of the Atlantic theater. Unless the United States rearranges its basing structure in the critical theaters — say, by basing heavy U.S. Navy forces in western Australia, thereby shifting the navy’s center of gravity to the region — it will keep dispatching expeditionary forces from east-coast seaports like Norfolk and Groton to the Arabian Sea and the Persian Gulf. They’re the closest North American naval stations to the western reaches of the greater Indian Ocean.

For the foreseeable future, then, Washington will continue to depend on the Atlantic Ocean, Mediterranean Sea, and Red Sea as a thoroughfare for U.S. naval forces. The pivot has deflected the administration’s policy attention to the south by a few compass points, from Europe to South Asia, while Washington has come to regard Europe less as an object of U.S. foreign policy in its own right than as an enabler for U.S. policy in Asia. But Europe has been a platform for U.S. warmaking in the Middle East and Indian Ocean region for more than two decades now. Does looking past Europe mark that radical a break with history, and is the shift that worrisome so long as the Atlantic Ocean and Western Europe face no real threat? I can’t see why.

Second, the South Asian rimland is inaccessible relative to the eastern and western rimlands, theaters reachable from North America by way of direct if long sea and air routes. Look at the map. U.S. forces bound for the Indian Ocean from the Atlantic must transit narrow seas like the Strait of Gibraltar, Suez Canal, and Bab el-Mandeb Strait. Units coming from the Pacific must traverse the Malacca, Lombok, or Sunda straits. If denied passage through these chokepoints, mariners must undertake arduous voyages around the Cape of Good Hope, at Africa’s southern tip, or around the southern rim of the South China Sea, scudding between Indonesia and Australia. In extreme circumstances, U.S. Pacific Fleet units might find themselves forced to detour around the southern Australian coast. Strategists must not blithely discount hard geographic realities — realities compounded by the lethal, long-range, precision weaponry increasingly found in hostile hands.

Third, the United States shouldered an increasing share of the resource burden in its early pivots. It could afford to. But an increasingly cash-strapped Washington would now like to offload some of the burden onto friends and allies. Indeed, the 2007 U.S. Maritime Strategy, which foreshadowed Pivot 3.0, instructs U.S. officials and commanders to seek out alliances, coalitions, and partnerships to help share the load. That makes Pivot 3.0 a stiffer diplomatic challenge than its forebears. It’s one thing for allies to grant access to their soil or conduct combined exercises or operations with U.S. forces. The American taxpayer foots most of the bill for such enterprises; what’s not to like? It’s quite another for allies to agree to help fund a made-in-Washington strategy out of their own taxpayers’ pockets. Deft diplomacy will be a must as the strategic pirouette proceeds.

Here’s hoping America’s next secretary of defense, whether it’s Hagel or somebody else, will see U.S. diplomatic history for what it is — a handy yardstick for today’s endeavors.

Junko Kimura/Getty Images

James Holmes is professor of strategy at the Naval War College. The views voiced here are his alone.


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coggocog

When we have JeanPierreKatz, among us, who needs Lindsey Graham, the Senator from South Carolina, (who also sits on the Armed Services Committee) charging our Nebraska naughty-boy, Chuck Hagel, among other things, “out of the ‘Mainstream, whatever that means, as far as Foreign Policy-views. Graham and John McCain? More like Don Quixote and his buddy, Sancho Panza, going after dilapidated windmills.

Jewish Lobby is just about ready to throw their best media campaign, if not already, into the Congressional fisticuffs. Pro Israel groups, such as “Emergency Committee for Israel” calling Chuck Hagel, “not a responsible choice.”

Source: The Economist, January 7, 2013 by MJS, London

Bring it on. Chuck and I, ain’t gonna go away, that easy.

…and I am Sid Harth@elcidharth.com

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AndyWisniewski1

Where did you get Indian Ocean from Pacific Pivot? Perhaps the reason the US currently concentrating on the SW Pacific is because it : 1. Has the Pacific Allies most in need of shoring up

2. Is more politically correct/less embroiled with Beijing over some shoals which may more may not contain Hydro-carbons and a Qing Emperor may or may not have took a deuce on said islands in 1842.

3. The opportunity for new engagement exists there, read Burma and Vietnam

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JeanPierreKatz

The Senate should say no to this terrible choice.  Hagel has no natural constituency, except perhaps for those who want a foreign and defense policy that is tougher on Israel and softer on Iran.   Israel would be clear that Obama views the Jewish state with hostility. Iran would be clear that it has nothing serious to fear from the Obama administration. Nothing else can explain this odd nomination. Team Obama tried to couch it as a bipartisan act, inasmuch as Hagel was a Republican Senator. But key Republican Senators have made it clear that they don’t want Hagel at the Pentagon. Key Democrats have also failed to express enthusiasm over that prospect.  If there’s a bipartisan consensus around Hagel, it’s that Obama should nominate someone else. If the President would like to abandon his election promises about stopping Iran’s nuclear weapons program he should just say so. Trying to change US Defense and Foreign Policy by just appointing Hagel will be understood that way in the Senate and will not be accepted.Ten out of twenty-five members of the Senate Armed Services Committee, Democrats, Republicans and Independents,have already expressed their concerns about him. To me he is the stereotypical Archie Bunker type bigot. His policies have been anti gay (even now after his late and self serving apology he doesn’t support equal benefits for gay military families.   there are many ways a Secretary of Defense could help gay military families no matter how DOMA is decided and Hagel has not come out in favor of any of these. Reports to the contrary, LGBT equality is not yet a done deal in the military. There is still the matter of partner benefits. There still remain a handful of regulations that could be revised independent of the Defense of Marriage act that could bring some equity of compensation and benefits to gay and lesbian service members. but remain denied due only to Department of Defense foot-dragging: Included in the discretionary benefits currently denied are spousal identication cards, and shopping at the PX, the former cited in the Pentagon’s own Working Group study as not requiring DOMA repeal to deliver. His remarks about the Jewish lobby having too much influence would cleary be seen as bigoted if you substitute any other minority group’s lobby. Try NAACP or La Raza and see how long you would be considered. He is anti-African American (with a 11/100 rating from NAACP and admires Strom Thurmond as a great role model. anti Woman (vs choice and contraception)By contrast, he has a 100% rating from the NRA. andHagel has drawn additional heat from insiders who claim he lacks the credentials needed to manage a department as large and essential as the Pentagon. “Yes, Hagel has crazy positions on several key issues. Yes, Hagel has said things that are borderline anti-Semitism. Yes, Hagel wants to gut the Pentagon’s budget. But above all, he’s not a nice person and he’s bad to his staff,” said a senior Senate aide who has close ties to former Hagel staffers. “Hagel was known for turning over staff every few weeks—within a year’s time he could have an entirely new office because nobody wanted to work for him,” said the source. “You have to wonder how a man who couldn’t run a Senate office is going to be able to run an entire bureaucracy.” Others familiar with Hagel’s 12 year tenure in the Senate said he routinely intimidated staff and experienced frequent turnover. “Chuck Hagel may have been collegial to his Senate colleagues but he was the Cornhusker wears Prada to his staff, some of whom describe their former boss as perhaps the most paranoid and abusive in the Senate, one who would rifle through staffers desks and berate them for imagined disloyalty,” said Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon adviser on Iran and Iraq. “He might get away with that when it comes to staffers in their 20s, but that sort of personality is going to go over like a ton of bricks at the Pentagon.” Multiple sources corroborated this view of Hagel. “As a manager, he was angry, accusatory, petulant,” said one source familiar with his work on Capitol Hill. “He couldn’t keep his staff.” “I remember him accusing one of his staffers of being ‘f—ing stupid’ to his face,” recalled the source  Sources expressed concern about such behavior should Hagel be nominated for the defense post. With competing military and civilian interests vying for supremacy, the department requires a skilled manager, sources said. “The Pentagon requires strong civilian control,” a senior aide to a former Secretary of Defense told the Free Beacon. “It’s already swung back in favor of the military over the past five years. A new secretary of defense should push it back in its rightful place, but it’s doubtful Hagel would be that guy.” “It’s not clear that [Hagel] has the standing, the managerial prowess, or the willingness to gore some oxen,” said the source. One senior Bush administration official warned that Hagel is ill informed about many critical foreign policy matters. “He’s not someone who’s shown a lot of expertise on these issues,” said the source, referencing a recent Washington Post editorial excoriating Hagel’s record. “That [op-ed] was extraordinary.” “Only in Washington,” the official added, “can someone like [Hagel] be seen as a heavy weight. He’s not the sharpest knife in the drawer.” Hagel’s reluctance to chastise Iran also remains a central concern. As chief of the Pentagon it is expected he would avoid planning for a military intervention should Tehran refuse to end its clandestine nuclear enrichment program. “The military brass is already reluctant to offer up any military options on Iran even though it’s their job to have something on the books and to leave the options of the commander in chief open,” said the aide. “Hagel will only reinforce these worrisome tendencies.” “Chances are he’ll view any legitimate effort to talk about military options with Iran as some plot by the ‘Israel Lobby’ to box him in,” the source said. There is no reason to believe his appointment would change Israeli policies. But there is a very strong likelihood that it would be a fatal blow to the chances of a negotiated settlement with Iran. Iran would have to conclude that it doesn’t have to fear finishing it’s nuclear weapons program or even continuing towards ICBM’s pointing at America.  Democratic senators, several of whom have already voiced concern, also should vote no on someone who’s views on many major issues are opposite of the President’s and who’s language is bigoted, and instead insist he appoint a better person like Michelle Flournoy. Flournoy closely mirrors the previous stated policies of the President, the Democratic Party, and the American people.

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Part of complete coverage from
Julian Zelizer: Commentaries

GOP, don’t fight the Hagel nomination

By Julian Zelizer, CNN Contributor
updated 1:17 PM EST, Mon January 7, 2013
President Barack Obama is nominating Chuck Hagel, a former U.S. senator from Nebraska, to succeed Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. Hagel served in the <a href='http://security.blogs.cnn.com/2013/01/06/chuck-hagels-views-on-war-forged-by-vietnam-experience/'>military during the Vietnam War</a>, leading him later to tell a biographer, "I will do all I can to prevent war." After coming home from Vietnam, Hagel worked briefly as a newscaster, then had a career in business, before entering public service as a Republican senator for 12 years. Here's a look at his military and government career: President Barack Obama is nominating Chuck Hagel, a former U.S. senator from Nebraska, to succeed Defense Secretary Leon Panetta. Hagel served in the military during the Vietnam War, leading him later to tell a biographer, “I will do all I can to prevent war.” After coming home from Vietnam, Hagel worked briefly as a newscaster, then had a career in business, before entering public service as a Republican senator for 12 years. Here’s a look at his military and government career:
STORY HIGHLIGHTS
  • President Barack Obama is nominating Chuck Hagel for defense secretary
  • Julian Zelizer: Republicans should avoid challenging Hagel’s confirmation
  • By opposing Hagel, GOP would strengthen Obama’s edge on national security
  • Zelizer: GOP would look foolish challenging one of its own and opposing bipartisanship

Editor’s note: Julian Zelizer is a professor of history and public affairs at Princeton University. He is the author of “Jimmy Carter” and of “Governing America.”

(CNN) — Some Republicans are itching for a fight on President Barack Obama’s nomination of former Sen. Chuck Hagel to be defense secretary.

Sen. Lindsey Graham warned that Hagel would be the most “antagonistic secretary of defense toward the state of Israel.” Neoconservative guru William Kristol is already cranking up the attack machine, focusing on Hagel’s statements about Israel and Iran. Although some Democrats are confused about the Hagel appointment, with some upset about remarks he made several years ago about homosexuality, if there is to be a fight it will probably come from the right.

Julian Zelizer

Julian Zelizer

Republicans would do well to avoid this path. In all likelihood, such a nomination fight would only hurt the Republicans, who are already reeling politically from the election and the battle over the fiscal cliff.

Why is a fight over Hagel a bad idea for Republicans? The most obvious is that they would be attacking a member of their own party. Even though Hagel has been a maverick and someone who was critical of his party, pushing in recent years for a centrist approach to foreign policy, he is a genuine Republican, as his voting record reveals.

A mobilized GOP opposition fighting against the inclusion of one of its own in a Democratic administration would only fuel frustration with the rightward drift of the party. After a move that demonstrates Obama’s true interest in bipartisanship, this would bolster the critics who say the GOP is to blame for gridlock in Washington.

Hagel is also a staunch advocate for veterans and the military. Republicans have always tried to make the claim that Democrats are weak on defense and that they are the party of national security.

Mack: Hagel ‘will get nomination in end’

Graham: Hagel a controversial choice

Hagel likely defense secretary pick

Although Hagel has been a skeptical hawk, he is a Republican hawk nonetheless. One does not have to work too hard to imagine what the optics would be like if Republicans go after Hagel, who would be the first Vietnam veteran to hold the position.

It would give Obama the opportunity to position himself as the person really standing behind a robust national security state. Since taking office, Obama has repeatedly tripped up Republicans on this issue, outflanking them to the right on the war on terrorism. This would simply continue that trend.

The final reason that taking on Hagel is extraordinarily risky for the GOP is that Hagel’s most famous maverick move was coming out as a critic of President George W. Bush’s war in Iraq despite the fact that he had supported the original resolution to use force if necessary.

Given how unpopular that war remains, a symbol for many Americans of the mistakes that Republicans made on foreign policy when in power, the last thing that Republicans probably want is a renewed debate on Iraq.

By bringing that war to an end, Obama has provided one of the greatest services to the GOP that it could have hoped for, allowing it to move on to other national security issues.

Even some of Hagel’s potential liabilities might turn out to be much less significant than expected. After all, despite his comments about Israel, the truth is that Hagel voted to provide Israel with aid and he has voted for sanctions with Iran. The record is much murkier than some of the statements on the Sunday morning talk shows would suggest.

Republicans have often shot from the hip in their attacks on the Obama administration. It is easy to imagine the president and his advisers anticipating attacks on Hagel that will only work to their favor.

Senate Republicans might want to think twice about this vote on a former colleague and focus their attention on more constructive debates.

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Join us at Facebook/CNNOpinion.

The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Julian Zelizer.

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Democracy in America

American politics

Barack Obama, Chuck Hagel and John Brennan

Similar visions

Jan 7th 2013, 18:18 by M.J.S. | LONDON

BY PICKING Chuck Hagel to be his defence secretary and John Brennan to succeed David Petraeus as director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Barack Obama has made plain the qualities he is looking for in his most senior security officials: experience, caution and, perhaps above all, personal loyalty. Both men see the world very much as Mr Obama does, which is to say, complicated, messy and all too frequently impervious to the use of American power even when wielded with the best of intentions.

Of the two, Mr Hagel, who currently serves as co-chairman of the president ‘s intelligence advisory board, is by far the more controversial choice. Although a decorated Vietnam soldier (he would be the first to hold the top job at the Pentagon) and a Republican senator for 12 years, his nomination is likely to be more contested by members of his own party than by Democrats (although he has relatively few friends in that camp as well). Lindsey Graham, the hawkish senator from South Carolina who sits on the Armed Services Committee, took to the airwaves over the weekend to describe the Nebraska Republican as well out of the “mainstream” in terms of his foreign-policy views and, if confirmed, “the most antagonistic secretary of defence towards the state of Israel in our nation’s history”. John McCain, a committee colleague of Mr Graham’s and his party’s losing presidential candidate in 2008, says that to “allege that Hagel is somehow a Republican… is a hard one to swallow”. Pro-Israeli groups, such as Emergency Committee for Israel, have also entered the fray, describing Mr Hagel as “not a responsible choice”. Some of the wilder comment has even come close to accusing Mr Hagel of being an anti-Semite.

This is mostly preposterous. During his Senate career, Mr Hagel regularly voted for large chunks of military aid to go to Israel. He has never said anything that could be taken as hostile to the country, other than by those who believe that support for Israel’s government should be unconditional. However, it is understandable why Mr Hagel rouses strong feelings in some quarters.

He has been a consistent critic of America’s long confrontation with Iran, at times expressing scepticism about the value of unilateral American sanctions. He remains an advocate of engagement with Iran and has warned against sliding into war on the basis of “flawed assumptions and flawed judgment”. It is not ridiculous to suggest that if Mr Hagel is at the Pentagon the mullahs in Tehran may worry a little less about Mr Obama’s promise to use force if necessary to prevent them acquiring a nuclear weapon. Mr Hagel has also upset people by arguing that Israel should talk to Hamas. In a 2006 interview he caused a minor storm by clumsily claiming that the “Jewish lobby intimidates a lot of people” in Congress and that his approach was to “argue against some of the dumb things they do because I don’t think it’s in the interest of Israel”.

Mr Hagel is also disliked by Republican neo-cons for having become a stern critic of the Bush administration’s conduct of the Iraq war (which he initially voted for). Few would argue now with his repeated charges of incompetence in the years after the invasion, but his opposition to the troop surge in 2007 that helped prevent Iraq descending into all-out civil war looks far less prescient.

It is an interesting question whether Mr Hagel’s Vietnam experience makes him sensibly prudent when it comes to sending Americans to fight in far off places or whether he is predisposed against all military interventions, even of a the very limited kind that helped topple Muammar Qaddafi in Libya. On the other hand, Mr Hagel was an enthusiast for the 1999 campaign in Kosovo, even co-sponsoring a bill that would have authorised the use of American ground forces. An early test is likely to be Afghanistan. Mr Hagel talked in 2011 of “looking for the exit”. If Mr Obama decides on a much smaller military commitment than was previously envisaged after 2014, when the last NATO combat troops are due to leave, Mr Hagel is all too likely to give him whatever cover he needs in bucking the advice of the generals.

All of this should make Mr Hagel a shoo-in with most Democrats. But some are hostile to him for an ill-considered remark in 1998 opposing the nomination of the “openly, aggressively gay” James Hormel as ambassador to Luxembourg. Others think Mr Obama would have been better off using his political capital to get Susan Rice, a popular Democrat, into Foggy Bottom rather than a Republican into the Pentagon. Nonetheless, despite some huffing and puffing, nearly all the Senate Democrats and probably most Senate Republicans will in the end respect the president’s right to choose his defence secretary.

Mr Brennan’s nomination as CIA director should, by comparison, be a breeze. Although he withdrew when Mr Obama considered him for the job in 2009 because, as a 25-year veteran of the spy agency, he was associated in the minds of some critics with the use of torture that had been sanctioned by the previous administration, many felt this was unfair at the time. In fact, Mr Brennan had opposed both the Iraq war and the post-9/11 “enhanced interrogation” techniques, such as water boarding. He was also a strong advocate for the closing of the Guantanamo prison camp. Over the past four years, Mr Brennan has served as the president’s trusted counter-terrorism adviser, closely involved in the mission that led to the killing of Osama bin Laden and an architect of the massively expanded drone campaign that has wiped out a large part of al-Qaeda’s senior leadership and taken the fight to the terrorist group’s affiliates in Yemen and Somali.

The growing use of drones and the existence of “kill lists” have caused serious concerns among civil-liberties groups, but Mr Brennan has been increasingly open about the legal and ethical context in which the strikes take place and is said to want to go further in making the rules governing attacks better codified and more transparent. He is also thought to be keen of transferring the main responsibility for lethal drone strikes from the CIA to the Pentagon’s Joint Special Operations Command which has a clearer chain of command and greater legal accountability. If Mr Brennan were slowly to shift the CIA away from its heavily paramilitary role of recent years back towards its more traditional function of intelligence gathering and analysis, many in the intelligence community would applaud.

Readers’ comments

Sid Harth 1 min ago

Chuck Hagel’s Biggest Task

Obama’s new defense secretary will first and foremost need to get the Asia pivot right.

BY JAMES HOLMES | JANUARY 7, 2013

coggocog

When we have JeanPierreKatz, among us, who needs Lindsey Graham, the Senator from South Carolina, (who also sits on the Armed Services Committee) charging our Nebraska naughty-boy, Chuck Hagel, among other things, “out of the ‘Mainstream, whatever that means, as far as Foreign Policy-views. Graham and John McCain? More like Don Quixote and his buddy, Sancho Panza, going after dilapidated windmills.

Jewish Lobby is just about ready to throw their best media campaign, if not already, into the Congressional fisticuffs. Pro Israel groups, such as “Emergency Committee for Israel” calling Chuck Hagel, “not a responsible choice.”

Source: The Economist, January 7, 2013 by MJS, London

Bring it on. Chuck and I, ain’t gonna go away, that easy.

…and I am Sid Harth@elcidharth.com

EC and ECB mind-control_ many politicians and business people in Europe. They
manipulate financial markets, require high interest rate, require low-price
privatization.
This is done with small implants in the head (sometimes involuntary)and
wireless technology, European Parliament calls it “converging technology”. Essentially a sensor is connected to nerves and the brain
teaches itself to recognize the single in this way the thoughts of a person
can be received and also send to him/her. I found such device implanted in my
sinuses with FMRI. I studied at CEU – sponsored by Soros, and Rostowski, the
financial minister of Poland was teaching there (he is also mind_ contolled), Bokrosh – European Parliament as well.
Behind Soros, actually are EC and ECB – the owners and beneficiaries of the
technology. It is not done for security, because I worked for the Bulgarian_
National Bank and I was threatened with this technology to make credit
expansion for the bank cartel (CEU is teaching the central banks in CEE this
actually). From BNB the mind-controlled Staty Statev, Kalin Hristov, Mariela Nenova, Andrey Vassilev, Rosen Rozenov, Grigor Stoevsky, Kristina Karagyozova, Tzvetan Tzalinsky lost 20 bln at stock exchange, 10 bln bad loans, tens of bilions at housing market.
I also met Papademos at a Austrian Central Bank Conference, while he was in
ECB, and I believe he is also mind-controlled. Tha same is valid for Spain, Italy, Greece.

Michael Dunne 25 mins ago

I think the article should have just focused on Hagel, and drilled down a little more on what kind of defense he would like to have (his defense vision).

Brennan could have been dealt with in another article.

With both covered, the article seems a little too high level, and almost rushed to cover the news.

Cool Beans 50 mins ago

The problem with clearing up the legal questions behind drones is that its essentially being institutionalized without taking into context the broader implications of the weapon. They are being liberally used, and the likelihood of this technology being acquired by countries or groups that don’t care much about accountability, let alone “precision strikes”, should be the larger question at hand. Unfortunately, this debate has been relegated, for the time being to less influential voices.

Damn Dirty Ape 52 mins ago

I’m surprised that there is no mention of opposition to Hagel based on partisan reasons. Hagel has essentially defected from the Republican party and endorsed a democrat (Bob Kerry) to replace him as Nebraska senator. He had previously supported Joseph Sestak, the democratic Senate candidate from Pennsylvania. And, lordy, he gave money to John Kerry’s presidential campaign. Add in calling the defense budget bloated, the waging of the Iraq war incompetent and an America first attitude towards Isreal and you have someone who just doesn’t sound like a (current) republican. Perhaps it is time to extract a few licks for his apostasy in the eyes of some Republican senators.

I am not sure these points could be deemed partisan – “the defense budget bloated, the waging of the Iraq war incompetent” – they could possibly represent facts?
`
Ones warranting serious attention possibly, for those who care to learn from the past and improve governance in how our tax dollars are used, just possibly?
Hopefully other sane Republicans don’t think otherwise, or force themselves to abide by some party line along those lines, contrived by the neocon fringe.
I take it you were writing the above with the tongue a bit in cheek?

universally challenged 1 hour 4 mins ago

Imagine if a law was passed stating that only those who have served in the military can vote on sending US troops to war or have a say in the “defence” (i.e. attack) of America, Im not saying this is realistic but it sure would change politics in Washington.

Two purple hearts in Nam, he’s got my vote.

Michael Dunne 1 hour 10 mins ago

Senator Hagel seems like a good choice. I would like to hear further details on his ideas for defense, fiscal retrenchment, priorities with future defense requirements, support for Afghanistan, improving procurement of weapons systems/practices, resolving the Futenma thorn in the side of Japanese/American relations, etc.

So far if there is any controversy, it is the controvery of contrived controversy in my opinion. Republicans are going to say a former Republican Senator is not a Republican? Hello?

And this is a Republican talking. Like not strong enough supporter for Israel (maybe they should look back at Ike and Ford for perspective); not hard enough on Iran?

As for personal loyalty to President Obama, that seems a bit of a stretch to speculate about right now. The fact is, the position of Senator does give independence, prestige, credibility ad opportunities to those who retire that are not often available in other spheres of life (the most elite boys/girls club).

k. a. gardner 1 hour 49 mins ago

“It is not ridiculous to suggest that if Mr Hagel is at the Pentagon the mullahs in Tehran may worry a little less about Mr Obama’s promise to use force if necessary to prevent them acquiring a nuclear weapon.”

Right. And it’s not ridiculous for two senators to voice concerns before a senate confirmation hearing. Hopefully, Hagel won’t say anything stupid (as he is wont to do) to scuttle his own ship.

The hysteria about Iran’s “weapon” (so far not known to exist other than in Israel’s imagination) has been, of course, whipped up by Israel. The real objection to the possibility of Iran’s having a nuke is that it would make it impossible to do an “Iraq war” on Iran. In short it would defend Iran from attack. This is what Israel wants to avoid. Even if Iran had a nuke it would not be stupid enough to use it first. Just as neither Russia nor the US did so when both had nukes.

I think it’s pretty clear that Iran is developing the capability for nuclear weapons, and given that Ahmadinejad and others have openly expressed a wish that Israel be destroyed, Israel’s fears are not unreasonable.

But I agree that if Iran were to have nukes, it would not strike first. For one thing, it would result in swift and sure nuclear retaliation. For another, Israel is so tiny that there’s no way it could be struck with a nuclear weapon without a huge loss of Arab and Palestinian life. And the fallout would effect all the nearby nations and territories, probably even Iran itself.

So I think Obama is playing it about right on this. A military attack would be of doubtful success, and at best would only delay the nuclear effort. The best thing is to be patient with sanctions, which are having a real effect on Iranian society.

saagua 1 hour 52 mins ago

This will be a litmus test of the degree to which Israel controls US foreign policy. Kristol, the Neocon, has set up a website Chuckhagel.com intended to organize opinion against his appointment. Clearly he is regarded as insufficiently obedient to Israel’s wishes. Quite amazing the degree to which millions of Americans are willing to subordinate American foreign policy to the wishes of a foreign nation.

Thats a borderline idiot statement, Israel has a GDP less then most Oil companies. While AIPAC has some influence it does not tell the US what to do in the Middle East. It certainly did not influence us to go into Iraq or Afghanistan.
If Netanyahu has so much clout why is it that Bush 1 and Baker and Obama essentially told him to shut up and get with the program ? Netanyahu cant even get his own military to attack Iran as they know how foolish an idea it is.
Oil is what controls our Middle East policies.

TS2912 2 hours 11 mins ago

The reason the GOP is against Hagel’s nomination because of his occasional complaints about the influence of the “Jewish lobby” and Jerusalem’s meddling in U.S. domestic politics.

This shows how pathetic the Republican Party has become…

1) Hagel started supporting his family while still a teenager when his father died prematurely

2) He and his brother volunteered for combat in Vietnam and served together there for two years

3) He was awarded TWO PURPLE HEARTS for bravery

4) HE returned home, went into private business, risking his entire life’s savings to help found what became the nation’s second-biggest cellular carrier

5) He then ran the USO and an investment bank

6) His voting record made him the favorite of the American Conservative Union

7) He was re-elected in Nebraska with a margin of 83% (the highest ever)

Talk about the GOP shooting itself in the foot!

McGenius 2 hours 12 mins ago

I wonder if anyone has any idea as to what the Obama doctrine to International Affairs or Defense is. I read the following sentence from the Economist and I am again left scratching my head wondering what people see in the President:

“Both men see the world very much as Mr Obama does, which is to say, complicated, messy and all too frequently impervious to the use of American power even when wielded with the best of intentions.”

The same man who views the world itself as being too complicated, too messy, and impervious to the power of the American government to where Mr. Obama at times concedes of being helpless- sees the American people and its institutions in an entirely different light. He sees the American people as requiring a heavy and constant application of rules, regulation, and taxation from the American government.

And yet this doesn’t sound strange to people? This doesn’t sound strange to the Economist?

What if Mr. Obama concluded that American society was too complicated, too messy, and too impervious to the machinations of the American government and instead decided to apply rules, regulations, and taxations on the rest of the world.

I think somewhere in there you see the Obama doctrine and perhaps who he sees as the greater threat.

What exactly is wrong with Obama viewing the world as being difficult to intervene and shape according to the wishes of Washington, but viewing the American citizenry as being more malleable by the American government? This is not an insidious ‘Obama doctrine’, this is a straightforward reality that a US president has far more tools to change the behaviour of his compatriots than any foreign nationals. Hence the reason why we separate foreign and domestic policies. Hence this whole idea of a sovereign state.

I really fail to see why you think this is a problem. Are you saying that a US administration should have the exact same amount of influence as it does with Tehran? Or that it should do as little for the Americans as it does for North Koreans? Because that’s a really odd argument to make.

PS. I should stop acting surprised whenever someone makes a stupid argument to disparage a US president, not to mention Obama.

Expand 1 more reply

Mr. Dean 2 hours 16 mins ago

McCain and Graham are right, the guy was only a senator for 12 years and has a measly 84% rating from the American Conservative Union. He’s barely more conservative than a wimp like… John McCain (82.5%).

Nick_Empirical Mag 2 hours 20 mins ago

Politicians and pundits may be critical of Hagel’s stance of Iran, but in Empirical Magazine’s January 2013 issue, Professor Stephen Zunes reflects on how America’s perception of Iran may be overdrawn. In the interview, Zune’s states “… the Iranian president is not particularly powerful and doesn’t control the military, and how when there is a moderate Iranian President like Khatami [Ahmaddinejad's predecessor], he was virtually ignored by the US media, I basically argue that Ahmedinejad fits so perfectly with the image of the stereotypically middle-eastern leader we love to hate…” To read an excerpt of Zune’s interview, follow our link:

http://empiricalmag.blogspot.com/2012/12/january-excerpt-interview-with-…

RumbaClave 2 hours 22 mins ago

John McCain and Lindsey Graham are pathetic. A cranky old coot that has far outlasted his productive shelf life and a lap dog idiot who seconds every one of his stupid whims.
As much as I loathed Liberman at least he has finally retired, thank god !
I have the feeling McCain is going continue being an ass for the remainder of his term.

Ah Beng 2 hours 23 mins ago

I remember that thanks in part to Hagel, the Israeli Iron Dome system that shot down over half the Hamas rockets in recent cross-border skirmishes was bought and paid for by American taxpayers, with the Israeli government only shelling out after all development costs had been paid with American aid. Near as I can tell his only major innovation in the realm of foreign relations with Israel is to support Israel the way most American voters want it to be supported and not the way Netanyahu wants it supported.

FlownOver 2 hours 32 mins ago

If Republican opposition to Sen. Hagel is precieved by the public at large as an unthinking reaction driven by a desire to inflict a defeat on Pres. Obama, the cost will exceed the benefit. “We agin him cause the other guy picked him”, won’t enhance the Republican brand.

spartan33 in reply to FlownOver 2 hours 18 mins ago

I think that Republicans are aware of how bad their brand is and are deciding now to go for the “go big or go home” strategy.
It shouldn’t work … but you never know. Americans voted for Bush in ’04 after all.